"Ukraine Needs a Peace of Inches, Not Miles"

February 24, 2025, marks three years since the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. In contrast to the ongoing stalemate on the battlefield, at the negotiating table, a glimmer of hope for restoring peace to Ukraine has emerged.

Ukrainian servicemen use US M777 howitzers during the conflict with Russian forces in the Kharkiv region.

After the heavy losses caused by the conflict, negotiations are small but necessary steps that can lay the foundation for ending the protracted war in Ukraine.

In a recent analysis in Foreign Policy, experts from the Wilson Centre in Washington (the US) affirmed: “Ukraine needs a peace of inches, not miles.”

Stressing that the war had gone on too long, experts say the only path forward is a series of small-scale, gradual agreements with Russia. Over the past three years, the conflict in Ukraine has not only caused heavy human and material losses for the warring parties, but it also created major disruptions in many areas around the world.

According to the United Nations, more than 11,700 civilians have died and more than 24,600 have been injured. The conflict has disrupted supply chains, pushing up food and energy prices. Western countries are also facing internal conflicts, as aid measures for Ukraine are seen as affecting the interests of the people and sparking a wave of protests.

The turning point has come after US President Donald Trump officially began his second term as president. Keeping his promise, Donald Trump has pushed forward a series of diplomatic moves on the situation in Ukraine, notably including the recent talks between high-level Russian and US delegations in Saudi Arabia, which have been welcomed by the international community.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that after more than four hours of talks, the US and Russia agreed on a number of principles, including: Restoring working levels at the Russian Embassy in Washington and the US Embassy in Moscow; appointing a high-level negotiating team to find a solution to end the war in Ukraine; initiating discussions on post-war geopolitical and economic cooperation; and continuing to actively participate in the negotiation process to ensure its effective development.

It is clear that the Trump administration's approach to the Ukraine issue compared to the previous administration is to advocate finding a solution through negotiations instead of maintaining a tough stance with Russia.

However, the rapid developments in Ukraine pose many risks. The fact that Ukraine and the European Union (EU) seem to be “left out” of important negotiations in Saudi Arabia has caused discontent in Europe. European leaders are working hard to ensure the EU’s participation at the negotiating table, after the US took its own steps with Russia — which could weaken the EU’s position and change the geopolitical balance in the region.

Another major challenge is the difference in preconditions for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Kiev demands that Moscow completely withdraw its troops from its territory. Russia, on the other hand, demands that Ukraine withdraw its troops from all territories that were previously annexed and pledge not to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).

On the US side, there are many reasons for Mr. Trump to want to quickly end the conflict in Ukraine. In addition to helping him score points with voters, this also helps the US reduce its financial burden to focus resources on solving domestic problems. However, Washington's hasty moves to promote reconciliation have also caused much controversy. The mixed reactions highlight the importance of ensuring the participation of all parties involved in resolving the conflict.

The situation on the battlefield in Ukraine remains tense and complicated. In that context, the recent moves to promote "dialogue instead of confrontation" have marked a turning point, gradually opening opportunities for greater success on the path to finding peace in Ukraine and Russia, although convincing the parties involved to make concessions and adjust their tough stances towards the goal of peace is a very difficult task.

NDO